Model evaluation usually starts as a sampling exercise. You draw a batch of traffic, run it through the candidate model, read the outputs, and file the bad ones. The statistical machinery behind that draw is well understood: to estimate a proportion within a given margin of error you compute a sample size from a confidence level and a z-score, and the formula is n = z² × p(1−p) / e² Explained in this sample size walkthrough. A commonly used calculator shows that estimating a proportion near 50% to within 5 percentage points at 95% confidence needs 384 responses, and tightening the margin to 3 points pushes the requirement past a thousand Sample Size - Population Proportion.
That arithmetic is fine for measuring a rate. It is terrible as a bug-catching mechanism, for one structural reason: sampling is memoryless. If a defect affects one input in two hundred, a fresh batch of two hundred has roughly a 37% chance of containing zero instances of it, and the next batch has the same chance all over again. Nothing about having reviewed the failure makes the next draw more likely to include it. Teams experience this as deja vu: the same malformed refund request, the same wrong-city booking, the same unescaped SQL table name, reviewed in April, reviewed again in July.
The fix is not a bigger sample. It is converting the reviewed failure into a deterministic test so detection stops depending on luck. Reviews of production incidents make the same point: the failure becomes a permanent regression test, added to a versioned dataset with defined expected behavior, run in the pull request gate so the issue cannot reappear silently turning a production failure into an evaluation case.
A worked number makes the difference concrete. Suppose you review 60 sampled outputs a week and find 6 real defects. Under pure sampling, each of those 6 is protected by a fresh draw each release; if a given defect occurs in 1% of traffic and the weekly sample is 400 items, expected detections per week are 4, but the probability of catching that specific defect in any one release is about 98% only if the draw includes it. As traffic grows and the sample stays at 400, that per-defect catch probability stays flat while the defect count keeps rising. Six new permanent cases per week, by contrast, compound: after a quarter you hold roughly 78 deterministic gates that never degrade and never need re-drawing.



