Token prices differ by roughly an order of magnitude or more between the cheapest and strongest tiers. Published rate cards show input prices from well under a dollar per million tokens at the low end up to tens of dollars at the frontier, with output prices typically several times the input price BenchLM pricing table and Silicon Data cost per token guide. One million tokens is roughly 750,000 English words, or about 1,500 pages of plain text PE Collective token guide, which is a useful sanity check: most content tasks consume far less than a million tokens.
Worked example. Suppose a team processes 2,000 content tasks a month. Each task sends about 3,000 input tokens and receives about 500 output tokens. That is 6 million input tokens and 1 million output tokens monthly.
Using illustrative rates of $0.10 per million input and $0.40 per million output for the small model, and $2.00 input and $10.00 output for the large model (both drawn from the pattern in the published rate cards above):
| Small model | Large model |
|---|
| Input cost (6M tokens) | $0.60 | $12.00 |
| Output cost (1M tokens) | $0.40 | $10.00 |
| Monthly inference cost | $1.00 | $22.00 |
| Error rate on ambiguous tasks (assumed) | 20% | 5% |
| Tasks needing rework per month | 400 | 100 |
| Minutes per rework at 8 minutes | 3,200 | 800 |
| Rework hours per month | 53.3 | 13.3 |
| Rework cost at $40 per hour | $2,133 | $533 |
| Total monthly cost | $2,134 | $555 |
The inference difference is $21 a month. The rework difference is $1,600 a month. The large model is roughly four times cheaper overall, and the token bill was never the deciding factor.
Now flip the assumptions to see where the small model wins. Take the same 2,000 tasks but make them mechanical: title variants from a keyword list. Error rate on the small model drops to 2%, and rework takes 1 minute because the reviewer just regenerates.
| Small model | Large model |
|---|
| Monthly inference cost | $1.00 | $22.00 |
| Rework tasks per month (2% vs 0.5%) | 40 | 10 |
| Rework minutes at 1 minute | 40 | 10 |
| Rework cost at $40 per hour | $26.67 | $6.67 |
| Total monthly cost | $27.67 | $28.67 |
Now the two are within a dollar of each other, and the small model's advantage is real but small. The lesson: the small model only produces meaningful savings when the task is so well specified that its error rate collapses and the fix is seconds, not minutes.
The general decision rule falls out of this:
Route to the small model when (probability of error × minutes to detect and fix × hourly cost) is less than the price gap between the models. Otherwise route to the large one.
That is the whole calculation. It takes five minutes to run per task type and it will change how you defend your model spend.
This is also what the research literature formalizes. Model routing is treated as a sequential decision problem, and learned routers have been shown to outperform the strongest fixed-model baseline by a relative margin in the mid-teens on quality and cost together LLMRouter paper. You do not need a trained router to get most of the benefit. A written routing table with the arithmetic above gets you most of the way.